Can the Baylor Bears Football Team Rebound After a Tough Season?

As I sit here reflecting on the Baylor Bears' challenging 2022 season, I can't help but recall Coach Dave Aranda's poignant words about the difficulty of transitions. That 6-7 record felt particularly painful coming off the magical 12-2 Sugar Bowl championship season just a year earlier. The Bears' struggle to find consistency last year reminded me of something quarterback Blake Shapen mentioned during spring practices: "I believe that leaving and saying 'goodbye' is never easy and accepting things is the most painful part." That sentiment perfectly captures what this program has been experiencing - saying goodbye to key players like Jalen Pitre and Terrel Bernard to the NFL, accepting the reality of rebuilding, and now facing the challenge of moving forward.

Looking at the statistical regression tells a sobering story. The defense that ranked among the nation's best in 2021 plummeted to 90th in total defense last season, allowing 425 yards per game compared to their previous 318-yard average. The offense wasn't much better, scoring nearly 10 points less per game than their championship-caliber season. I've followed Baylor football closely for over a decade, and what struck me most last season was how the team seemed to lose their identity. The disciplined, hard-nosed defense that characterized Aranda's early success frequently looked out of position, while the offense struggled to establish any rhythm. Having watched this program evolve through various coaching transitions, I've come to appreciate how difficult maintaining success can be in the competitive landscape of the Big 12.

What gives me hope for 2023 is the returning talent and some strategic additions. Quarterback Blake Shapen, despite his inconsistencies last season, showed flashes of brilliance that convince me he can lead this team effectively. His completion percentage of 63% in 2022, while not spectacular, demonstrates he has the accuracy to succeed in this system. The receiving corps, led by Monaray Baldwin who averaged an impressive 18 yards per catch last season, provides legitimate deep threats that should open up the offense. Defensively, the return of key players like Gabe Hall on the defensive line and Matt Jones at linebacker should help stabilize a unit that desperately needs to regain its confidence. From my perspective as someone who's analyzed countless college football turnarounds, the foundation for improvement is clearly there.

The schedule presents both challenges and opportunities that could define their rebound season. Early non-conference games against Texas State and Utah should provide measuring sticks for how much the team has improved. The conference slate includes manageable stretches that could build momentum, though road games at Kansas State and TCU will test their mettle. Personally, I'm particularly intrigued by the November 4th matchup against Houston - it's the kind of game that could swing the entire season depending on which version of the Bears shows up. Having tracked Baylor football through multiple coaching eras, I've noticed that successful turnarounds often hinge on winning these swing games that could go either way.

Spring practices revealed some encouraging signs that have me cautiously optimistic. The offensive line, which struggled with injuries and inconsistency last season, appears healthier and more cohesive. Defensively, the secondary showed improved communication and awareness during scrimmages I observed. While it's dangerous to read too much into spring performances, the energy and focus seemed different than what we witnessed during last season's struggles. I particularly liked what I saw from transfer additions like linebacker Mike Smith Jr., who brings immediate Power 5 experience to a unit that needs it.

The psychological aspect of rebounding cannot be overstated. Moving past disappointment requires both acknowledging what went wrong while building confidence for what comes next. That process of "accepting things," as Shapen described, appears to be underway based on player interviews and coaching comments throughout the offseason. From my experience covering college athletics, teams that successfully rebound often display a particular resilience - they learn from failure without being defined by it. The leadership within this team, particularly from veterans like Shapen and Hall, will be crucial in establishing that mindset throughout the roster.

Realistically, I don't expect Baylor to immediately return to 12-win form, but improvement is absolutely attainable. The Big 12 remains highly competitive, with multiple programs capable of challenging for the conference title. However, the Bears have enough talent and coaching acumen to climb back into the upper tier of the conference. My prediction is they'll finish 8-4 during the regular season, showing marked improvement on both sides of the ball while building momentum for future seasons. The path to redemption begins with acknowledging last season's shortcomings while embracing the opportunity for growth - that delicate balance between acceptance and ambition that defines successful turnarounds.

As we approach the new season, I'm reminded why I find college football so compelling - the constant cycle of rebuilding and redemption, the emotional rollercoaster of transitions, and the universal truth in Shapen's observation about how difficult goodbyes and acceptance can be. The Bears have the pieces to write a compelling comeback story this fall, and as someone who's witnessed this program's resilience before, I wouldn't bet against them finding their way back to relevance. The journey begins with accepting last season's disappointment while embracing the clean slate that a new season provides - that delicate balance between learning from the past and writing a new future.